Coronavirus

Newest data out of Tel Aviv University:

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf

SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021.





Model 3 was also of special interest.

Model 3 - previously infected vs. vaccinated and previously infected individuals



In model 3, we matched 14,029 persons. Baseline characteristics of the groups are presented in Table 1b. Examining previously infected individuals to those who were both previously infected and received a single dose of the vaccine, we found that the latter group had a significant 0.53-fold (95% CI, 0.3 to 0.92) (Table 4a) decreased risk for reinfection, as 20 had a positive RT-PCR test, compared to 37 in the previously infected and unvaccinated group. Symptomatic disease was present in 16 single dose vaccinees and in 23 of their unvaccinated counterparts. One COVID-19-related hospitalization occurred in the unvaccinated previously infected group. No COVID19-related mortality was recorded.



From previous studies, we learned that vaccination of previously infected people helps prevent hospitalization only if the first infection hospitalized them. 1 out of 14,029 sounds plausibly in line with that other study's conclusions.


Do we hold people who have a minimum of five times better protection than a vaccine provides accountable for their infection, given the data?
Not all unvaccinated people are dangerous. The COVID recovered are less likely to fill an ICU than vaccinated people.

The last question is...given their far greater immunity, are the COVID recovered less contagious?  
Intuitively, yes, but I look forward to this final piece of the puzzle.

It seems a no brainer to me too.

I caught COVID in November 2020. (pre-vaccine)  I was tested. It's not a guess I had COVID. I'm confirmed.

So if I get the vaccine, I get all the risk, but no measurable benefit. (only people hospitalized by COVID the first time have been proven to avoid hospitalization the second time)
Yet I run into people shocked I'm among "the unvaccinated".

I'm 53, so not in the age risk group.
My a1c levels indicate I'm not diabetic.
I'm 190 lbs and 6'0". (not bad for 53)
Natural immunity has been found to be at least 5x more effective than vaccination. 
Delta has badly eroded the vaccine's efficacy.

Getting the vaccine that was based on the Wuhan virus that I contracted makes no sense.
COVID is the only disease I've heard of where doctors give you the vaccine after you've caught the disease it prevents.
No other disease has been treated this way in medical history. Vaccines before COVID were treated as preventative, not treatments.

Yet people take me for a loon.

The CDC has this to say about vaccinating after catching a disease:
www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html

Should You Get Vaccinated After Being Exposed to Measles, Mumps, or Rubella?

If you do not have immunity against measles, mumps, and rubella and are exposed to someone with one of these diseases, talk with your doctor about getting MMR vaccine. It is not harmful to get MMR vaccine after being exposed to measles, mumps, or rubella, and doing so may possibly prevent later disease.



If you get MMR vaccine within 72 hours of initially being exposed to measles, you may get some protection against the disease, or have milder illness. In other cases, you may be given a medicine called immunoglobulin (IG) within six days of being exposed to measles, to provide some protection against the disease, or have milder illness.

Not really consistent with the COVID guidelines, is it?
In this scenario, you get exposed to COVID (how did you know at the time?) and decide to get the vaccine post haste.
Has anyone heard any health authority say that beyond that three day window the vaccine is pointless?
Me neither.

In the push to persuade, cajole, bribe and coerce the reluctant masses to the vaccination centres there is little focus here on the longevity of vaccine protection. Currently this is unknown past a best guess. 

Emerging credible evidence is looking like this could be a short as 6 months for robust protection in the  most vulnerable groups (data unclear yet in the non-vulnerable population). As we began vaccinating our elderly and vulnerable in the U.K. in Dec 2020 that could make for an ugly winter and many NHS clinicians are very concerned. No evidence at all about the potential efficacy of booster vaccination past what can be assumed from other vaccination programmes and illnesses. 

I am not sure I could cope terribly well with another go around the wheel. I badly want to sit on a beach. 

My post that started this thread: "I’ve read that 70 percent of the world is likely to get this and people over 60 and/or people with cancer or chronic diseases like hypertension or heart disease are the most likely to die. If you are like me over 60 and with a chronic disease, you can take this as an opportunity to think of if you were to die soon you’d die with major regrets about things you wished you had done when you were able. And if you’d die with those kind of regrets, you still have time to change the trajectory of your life."

Curious about whether anyone has made any positive major life changes during the pandemic. Especially wondering if this has caused any to leave their sexless marriages. I know that if I were still in my SM, it would have been hell being shut inside with my partner and that would have pushed me to divorce. I haven't made any major changes during the pandemic except getting very involved in online theater improv and getting so good that I'm involved in some online troupes. Happy that the person I've been stuck inside with post SM lover during this dismal time in which I have lost to covid friends and relatives.

Up until a month ago my church was acceding to pretty much all the precautions associated with preventing the spread of Covid19.  It seem the worst was behind us. Since then the congregation has gotten pretty lax. No masks, no social distancing, etc. This Sunday I am going to re-institute fogging to sanitize between services, and I will be wearing my mask through the entire service. I can't control what other choose to do, but I can try and minimize the potential for a mass spreading event where I worship. I will also float the idea of furnishing and placing masks in the narthex for those who might forget and leave their mask in the car. 

We are pretty much the other side of Delta here as it arrived with gusto in the spring. Today for the first time I noticed that suddenly the majority of people in the supermarket did not wear masks. This is within the law, but every indoor space asks customers to wear them as a courtesy to others. Complacency seems to be creeping in, which is dangerous at the start of autumn and the ‘flu season.