|
|
Post by Handy on Sept 12, 2020 20:58:34 GMT -5
mirrororchid
After one year I paid off everything but 2401 dollars. The 12 payments of 200 left me with 1 buck of debt past the payoff date.
Lucky I don't need to borrow often. I'd get the stink-eye from every loan officer in town.
Some car dealers have everyone on commission, even the people that do the paper work.
I bought a used van and after the sales person and I made a deal, I was turned over to the paper work guy. He asked me what I wanted to pay a month for the van. I said I wanted to pay cash for the van. He said that was the dumbest idea he ever heard. His cut of the $500 interest on a car loan just went to zero.
Part of my business area is booming, the banking part but nothing else. The main street area isn't that long but there are 8 banks with one new bank being constructed where a restaurant once was. Just what the public does not need.
Then I considered what type of business was the most profitable.
Restaurant: Lots of wages to pay the help plus employee turn over. Now with Covid, too few customers.
Grocery Store: Huge inventory cost, shop lifting, the lettuce and bananas go bad, people walking off with shopping carts/trolleys etc.
Bank: Some deposit money then create fiat money on the computer. Not a lot of inventory. National database on clients ability to repay loans so the loan default rate should be low. Have very high fees for NSF checks and late payments, Charge everyone a little extra interest on their loans to cover defaults. Local area banks in my town have 5 to 10 employees so labor costs are reasonable. Borrow some money from the fed at 1/4 percent and loan it out at 6%=nice profit.
My choice of a business would be banking. You create inventory to loan out on a computer.
I remember the gas station building boom. New gas stations all over the place, sometimes 3 or 4 to an intersection. After that boom, the 7-11 or Quick Mart building boom happened. Now it is banking.
|
|
|
|
Post by mirrororchid on Sept 14, 2020 6:12:04 GMT -5
Bank: Some deposit money then create fiat money on the computer. Not a lot of inventory. National database on clients ability to repay loans so the loan default rate should be low. Have very high fees for NSF checks and late payments, Charge everyone a little extra interest on their loans to cover defaults. Local area banks in my town have 5 to 10 employees so labor costs are reasonable. Borrow some money from the fed at 1/4 percent and loan it out at 6%=nice profit. My choice of a business would be banking. You create inventory to loan out on a computer. Yes, pretty sweet. Whenever I look for companies to invest in, I run a stock screener and way too many of the businesses with good prospects are banks....and....insurance companies. Whenever I find a company with a reasonably good payout possibility that isn;t a financial sector pick, I feel a little warm and fuzzy. Finally, I get to invest in people that DO something for a living. What happens when loan officers get replaced by ATMs too? |
|
|
|
Post by Handy on Sept 14, 2020 11:16:28 GMT -5
Mirrororchid, I use the screener on FINVIZ.com and depending on what to screen in or out, some searches results are mostly financial, REITS or similar industry results.
When I screen for higher dividends, I get too many for me to be comfortable results, where the dividend is higher than 70% of the company earnings.
I also see the typical ratings by analysts as too rosy/optamistic. Yahoo's strong buy , buy, hold, sell, strong sell recommendations for me get lowered one notch so a hold to me is a warning to maybe sell a stock.
The county library has on-line ValueLine access and my broker has 4 or 5 other analyst company services. Yes it becomes almost too much work to look at the information from all of the services. What fascinates me is one service has a stock as a strong buy and another service list the same stock as a sell. I am not into frequent trading so I can ignore the buy or sell recommendations. I tend to look for information about predicting where a company will be in 3 years and what the company is doing to be a leader in their field and how the company can maintain a profit to pay its dividend.
For excitement I READ about all of the electric car and truck companies-electric vehicles (EV)and battery advancements. Like other industries with over 200 newish companies, there are going to be a few winners and lots of losers. I do not see Tesla keeping its lead and high value in 5 or 10 years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Handy on Sept 14, 2020 20:04:07 GMT -5
Mirrororchid
What happens when loan officers get replaced by ATMs too?
I think computer usage replaced a lot of people in many industries. A local credit union offers lower rates if a person applies for a loan on-line. I am certain that is an example of replacing a loan officer.
I just read the Nikola NKLA truck mobility demonstration was a partly assembled truck (no fuel cell) rolling down a hill. Conclusion, it is what you don't know that will get you in trouble.
|
|
|
|
Post by mirrororchid on Sept 15, 2020 6:25:08 GMT -5
...l ratings by analysts as too rosy/optamistic. Yahoo's strong buy , buy, hold, sell, strong sell recommendations for me get lowered one notch so a hold to me is a warning to maybe sell a stock. ...The county library has on-line ValueLine access and my broker has 4 or 5 other analyst company services. .... I tend to look for information about predicting where a company will be in 3 years and what the company is doing to be a leader in their field and how the company can maintain a profit to pay its dividend. For excitement I READ about all of the electric car and truck companies-electric vehicles (EV)and battery advancements. Like other industries with over 200 newish companies, there are going to be a few winners and lots of losers. I do not see Tesla keeping its lead and high value in 5 or 10 years. Kellogg's came up in a stock screening a long time ago and the numbers were better than usual. I didn't mind owning a pedigree stock with good number but S&P rated it as "Avoid". I bought it anyway. It paid of much sooner than average (hit my 30% profit mark.) S&P lost all credibility. I've heard some say that the ratings agencies will downgrade stocks they feel will rise soon so that they can buy it up on the cheap from any rubes who take them at their word. It would explain their total eff-up on Kellogg's. Ratings may be a contrary signal. But I don't want to spend time deciding which ratings are legit and which aren't. The psychology they're using could change on a whim. I looked at ValueLine once. I liked what I saw in terms of raw data. I do not analyse much about a company at all. Just their finance numbers. Debt, Earnings, dividend. Maybe PEG. Then if they are financial stocks or Chinese (I don't own things a foreign government can just take away when it feels like it.) I steer clear. (I may buy finance again if that's all that's fitting the formula.) Tesla cannot holding this value level. Question is, does it drop or plateau several times? Does it's growth justify more price hikes? Probably yes. Amazon was once absurdly valued. Now? Well, still rather dear. But it sure grew in price. When Linux was all the rage, I bought all of the Linux stocks not know which would be the winner. One of the stocks I bought was Red Hat and it came out on top and did pretty nicely. There's only one other stock in EV on the radar screen for me: NKLA... and it is an utter fraud, as you discovered, but NKLA's detractors are legion and have been sniffing their fertilizer for a long time now. The rolling truck stunt is just the latest in hyjynx by the golden boy CEO. They have been called the "automotive Theranos." If anyone competes with Tesla, I expect it to be Chinese or an established company like Toyota. (I already own some Honda, Toyota, and Tata Motors (Indian car company that bought out Range Rover and Jaguar). Did you know the Chinese bought Volvo? |
|
|
|
Post by Handy on Sept 15, 2020 18:31:27 GMT -5
I knew India or China bought the Volvo car division. I read in China, there are copies of several car brands.
In my area there are a lot of Volvo class 8 trucks where the main brand used to be Kenworth and Peterbuilt. I watched several videos of Volvo's dual clutch-dual transmission, computer controlled (no clutch pedal) operations. Ford had a small version in one of their small compact car that was a problem for some people.
Volkswagen was a surprise to me with all of the brands the VW company owns and the big truck brands it owns. In South America a lot of the big trucks are built by VW.
Avoid or buy advice? Yes, it doesn't make sense. One rating service says avoid while another rating service says a particular stock is a "Strong Buy."
I always look at the PEG, 5 yr earnings estimates, the over bought-over sold numbers the MACD and estimated future sales growth. Any PE over 20 turns me off but I know some big gainers have PE's way above 20. Mostly I consider investing in a stock if I were to give my money directly to the company and estimate how that would work out for me.
I head about several fund managers that had exceptionally good results and high profits from investing. One thing that made me feel like a hill billy was several of the top fund managers hired 50 or more PhD's in different education fields and have some high end computer programs and programmers. That got me to think "how do I compete with those people and the things they have, with me sitting in my basement, looking at news that is most likely days old?" I win some and lose some but I try to invest in stocks where the chance of preserving purchasing power likely exists.
I got the wool pulled over my eyes with my first investment. The sales person told me I should buy 100 shares of a $10 mutual fund because it was about to pay a .50 cent dividend. The next month's statement showed my $1,000 investment was now worth $950 and I had a $50 dividend. At first I was OK with the numbers but later I thought OK, I have to pay tax on that $50 dividend so in reality I lost $10 due to an income tax liability. I have had a few other costly learning experiences but that is part of the process.
|
|
|
|
Post by Handy on Sept 21, 2020 9:08:48 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Handy on Sept 22, 2020 20:30:50 GMT -5
|
|
