Post by Chatter Fox on Apr 28, 2016 10:50:37 GMT -5
I don't know about any of you, but I hate misleading statistics. I keep running into divorce statistics that raise more questions than answers for me. So I wanted to start this thread to allow all of us to spread awareness on divorce statistics. ... or to even have a friendly and respectful debate about it.
There's no doubt that there's negatives to divorce, but I sometimes feel as though articles are skewed in favor of staying married and they use misleading statistics to drive home their point.
For example, yesterday I read an article that had the following statistics (paraphrased by yours truly)
1.) Those that divorce die sooner
2.) Those that divorce have 39% more chance of committing suicide.
3.) Those that divorce have 25% of the net worth that they would have had if they had never gotten married.
I want to address each of these one by one.
First off, dying sooner. ...well how much sooner? They don't say. Are we talking a year? Two? Three? Ten? The missing number is critical here. I'd trade time of life for quality of life anyway. I personally have my limits though. I wouldn't leave my marriage if it meant I was guaranteed to lose 20 years of life. Thing is though, not only is the missing number critical, but it's also impossible to predict. NOTHING is guaranteed. Just because divorced people die sooner ON AVERAGE doesn't mean that I necessarily would. Everybody's story is different. I imagine that those in extreme cases of abuse would benefit greatly in terms of life span if they were removed from their toxic environment. So, it isn't quite fair to smear everyone's outcome in terms of life span together into one number that supposedly predicts your demise.
The next stat, suicide. This one sounds scary on the surface. 39% more likely to commit suicide? Yikes! But if you actually do the math, it's really not so scary. According to Wikipedia, there are 12.1 suicides in the united states per every 100,000 people per year. So, every year, 12.1 out of every 100,000 people commit suicide. Thats 0.0121% of the population. That's not a exactly a big number. Suicide is not extremely common. If you go 39% more than this number, you would take 0.0121% * 1.39 = 0.0168%. Its STILL a small number. The increase sounds significant when you hear 39% more likely, but it's misleading. I don't know about you guys, but the number is completely and utterly a non-issue for me when presented as an increase from 0.0121% to 0.0168%. Even if someone said you'd be twice as likely or three times as likely, it's still a small chance. That would be almost like buying two lottery tickets. You doubled your chances, but the chances were slim to begin with. So how much does it really matter. In my opinion, suicide risks should be considered and taken seriously, but I imagine those that suffer from severe depression or other emotional struggles are at highest risk regardless of marital status. I base that on my gut, and maybe if I'm bored, I'll try to put some numbers to my gut. For now though, that's all I have to say about it.
The third stat states that those who divorce have 25% of the net worth that they would have had they never gotten married. This one makes it sound like divorce makes you poor. Now granted, it certainly will hit you in the wallet. Thing is, they are comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare those that got married to those that didn't and expect to get a meaningful comparison about divorce. This appears to be more of a comparison between marriage and staying single. Imagine how much time, energy and freedom you'd have to put towards advancing your career if it weren't for having a family. Also, those that stay single may happen to be more focused on career than family anyway. So maybe the stay says more about priorities and preferences of different people. Plus, what about kids? Most marriages include kids. How much of our money is spent on raising kids? As I understand it, net worth is based on what you earn, have saved, and what you own. How much money can you imagine saving over the years if you didn't have child expenses? How many expensive toys and investments could you acquire if you didn't have to pay for things that your kids need to survive that doesn't add to your net worth? I just think that statistic is silly. I'm not a financial whiz though, so if anyone can correct me and my line of reasoning, then I'm totally open to seeing a new perspective.
Another thing that bothers me about divorce statistics in general is this, you can categorize divorced people into 2 types, those that wanted the divorce and those that didn't. I imagine that the stats between the 2 categories could be much different, yet all divorced people are lumped together for the sake of statistical analysis.
OK, rant over. If I made any math errors or said anything stupid, please feel free to correct me. Also, feel free to give me any kind of perspective that may go contrary to wjat I've said. I'm open minded to others views.
There's no doubt that there's negatives to divorce, but I sometimes feel as though articles are skewed in favor of staying married and they use misleading statistics to drive home their point.
For example, yesterday I read an article that had the following statistics (paraphrased by yours truly)
1.) Those that divorce die sooner
2.) Those that divorce have 39% more chance of committing suicide.
3.) Those that divorce have 25% of the net worth that they would have had if they had never gotten married.
I want to address each of these one by one.
First off, dying sooner. ...well how much sooner? They don't say. Are we talking a year? Two? Three? Ten? The missing number is critical here. I'd trade time of life for quality of life anyway. I personally have my limits though. I wouldn't leave my marriage if it meant I was guaranteed to lose 20 years of life. Thing is though, not only is the missing number critical, but it's also impossible to predict. NOTHING is guaranteed. Just because divorced people die sooner ON AVERAGE doesn't mean that I necessarily would. Everybody's story is different. I imagine that those in extreme cases of abuse would benefit greatly in terms of life span if they were removed from their toxic environment. So, it isn't quite fair to smear everyone's outcome in terms of life span together into one number that supposedly predicts your demise.
The next stat, suicide. This one sounds scary on the surface. 39% more likely to commit suicide? Yikes! But if you actually do the math, it's really not so scary. According to Wikipedia, there are 12.1 suicides in the united states per every 100,000 people per year. So, every year, 12.1 out of every 100,000 people commit suicide. Thats 0.0121% of the population. That's not a exactly a big number. Suicide is not extremely common. If you go 39% more than this number, you would take 0.0121% * 1.39 = 0.0168%. Its STILL a small number. The increase sounds significant when you hear 39% more likely, but it's misleading. I don't know about you guys, but the number is completely and utterly a non-issue for me when presented as an increase from 0.0121% to 0.0168%. Even if someone said you'd be twice as likely or three times as likely, it's still a small chance. That would be almost like buying two lottery tickets. You doubled your chances, but the chances were slim to begin with. So how much does it really matter. In my opinion, suicide risks should be considered and taken seriously, but I imagine those that suffer from severe depression or other emotional struggles are at highest risk regardless of marital status. I base that on my gut, and maybe if I'm bored, I'll try to put some numbers to my gut. For now though, that's all I have to say about it.
The third stat states that those who divorce have 25% of the net worth that they would have had they never gotten married. This one makes it sound like divorce makes you poor. Now granted, it certainly will hit you in the wallet. Thing is, they are comparing apples to oranges. You can't compare those that got married to those that didn't and expect to get a meaningful comparison about divorce. This appears to be more of a comparison between marriage and staying single. Imagine how much time, energy and freedom you'd have to put towards advancing your career if it weren't for having a family. Also, those that stay single may happen to be more focused on career than family anyway. So maybe the stay says more about priorities and preferences of different people. Plus, what about kids? Most marriages include kids. How much of our money is spent on raising kids? As I understand it, net worth is based on what you earn, have saved, and what you own. How much money can you imagine saving over the years if you didn't have child expenses? How many expensive toys and investments could you acquire if you didn't have to pay for things that your kids need to survive that doesn't add to your net worth? I just think that statistic is silly. I'm not a financial whiz though, so if anyone can correct me and my line of reasoning, then I'm totally open to seeing a new perspective.
Another thing that bothers me about divorce statistics in general is this, you can categorize divorced people into 2 types, those that wanted the divorce and those that didn't. I imagine that the stats between the 2 categories could be much different, yet all divorced people are lumped together for the sake of statistical analysis.
OK, rant over. If I made any math errors or said anything stupid, please feel free to correct me. Also, feel free to give me any kind of perspective that may go contrary to wjat I've said. I'm open minded to others views.
